Sunday, June 11, 2023

A few hypotheses on LLMs

An autopilot is a system used to control the path of an aircraft, marine craft or spacecraft without requiring constant manual control by a human operator. Autopilots do not replace human operators. Instead, the autopilot assists the operator's control of the vehicle, allowing the operator to focus on broader aspects of operations. Wikipedia

LLMs will increase...

  • The value of leadership / management ability / soft skills / presence 
  • The value of technical understanding - “technical” broadly construed. 
    • Deep understanding of law, finance, bio, whatever

LLMs will decrease...

  • The # of mid-level knowledge jobs. 
    • LLMs will make the entry-level workers more effective and provides the upper-level more leverage (raises the floor and ceiling, but hollows the middle)
LLMs will not...
  • Replace the "last mile" of any knowledge work. 
    • As soon as some knowledge work is about to touch the real world, a human will always be involved. 
      • No business or entity that intends to persist over time is going to copy/paste or trust LLM outputs and call it a day. .
      • This is also, in part, because an LLM will never have full, real-world, up-to-the-second understanding of context surrounding a given task. 
Good reads on product direction